cc: date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:39:48 -0000 from: "Keiller, Donald" subject: FW: Yamal and paleoclimatology to: Dear Professor Briffa, I am pleased to hear that you appear to have recovered from your recent illness sufficiently to post a response to the controversy surrounding the use of the Yamal chronology; (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/cautious/cautious.htm) and the chronology itself; (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/yamal2009/) Unfortunately I find your explanations lacking in scientific rigour and I am more inclined to believe the analysis of McIntyre (http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7588) Can I have a straightforward answer to the following questions 1) Are the reconstructions sensitive to the removal of either the Yamal data and Strip pine bristlecones, either when present singly or in combination? 2) Why these series, when incorporated with white noise as a background, can still produce a Hockey-Stick shaped graph if they have, as you suggest, a low individual weighting? And once you have done this, please do me the courtesy of answering my initial email. Dr. D.R. Keiller -----Original Message----- From: Keiller, Donald Sent: 02 October 2009 10:34 To: 'k.briffa@uea.ac.uk' Cc: 'p.jones@uea.ac.uk' Subject: Yamal and paleoclimatology Dear Professor Briffa, my apologies for contacting you directly, particularly since I hear that you are unwell. However the recent release of tree ring data by CRU has prompted much discussion and indeed disquiet about the methodology and conclusions of a number of key papers by you and co-workers. As an environmental plant physiologist, I have followed the long debate starting with Mann et al (1998) and through to Kaufman et al (2009). As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole scientific basis of dendroclimatology. In particular; 1) The appropriateness of the statistical analyses employed 2) The reliance on the same small datasets in these multiple studies 3) The concept of "teleconnection" by which certain trees respond to the "Global Temperature Field", rather than local climate 4) The assumption that tree ring width and density are related to temperature in a linear manner. Whilst I would not describe myself as an expert statistician, I do use inferential statistics routinely for both research and teaching and find difficulty in understanding the statistical rationale in these papers. As a plant physiologist I can say without hesitation that points 3 and 4 do not agree with the accepted science. There is a saying that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof". Given the scientific, political and economic importance of these papers, further detailed explanation is urgently required. Yours sincerely, Dr. Don Keiller. -- EMERGING EXCELLENCE: In the Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) 2008, more than 30% of our submissions were rated as 'Internationally Excellent' or 'World-leading'. Among the academic disciplines now rated 'World-leading' are Allied Health Professions & Studies; Art & Design; English Language & Literature; Geography & Environmental Studies; History; Music; Psychology; and Social Work & Social Policy & Administration. Visit www.anglia.ac.uk/rae for more information. This e-mail and any attachments are intended for the above named recipient(s)only and may be privileged. If they have come to you in error you must take no action based on them, nor must you copy or show them to anyone please reply to this e-mail to highlight the error and then immediately delete the e-mail from your system. Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of Anglia Ruskin University. Although measures have been taken to ensure that this e-mail and attachments are free from any virus we advise that, in keeping with good computing practice, the recipient should ensure they are actually virus free. Please note that this message has been sent over public networks which may not be a 100% secure communications Email has been scanned for viruses by Altman Technologies' email management service - www.altman.co.uk/emailsystems