date: Sat, 15 Feb 1997 19:10:14 +0000
from: Menno Bouma <menno.bouma@lshtm.ac.uk>
subject: malaria in Europe
to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk

Dear Mike,

It has been some time ago that we last met! Hope that things are well 
in East Anglia.

1) Did you hear that our joint proposal (with Pim Martens) is one of 
1,500 now assessed by the EU? Does not look hopeful. However, maybe 
we can do some PR and raise the profile of the proposal a bit.
What I have in mind is a letter to the Lancet relating weather and 
historic malaria fluctuations in Europe. In an earlier letter (1994, I may 
have given you a copy), the geographical association was made between areas 
affected by ENSO and periodic epidemics. This letter ends with an 
open explanation for the 20-year periods in malaria in Europe (Italy 
and the Netherlands). Last weeks publication in Science on a possible 
North Atlantic equivalent of the Nino with a period of 20 years may 
be of significance. I dug up the malaria data (Italy and The 
Netherlands) between 1820-1930  which do show evidence of this 20 
year cycle, with exacerbations in 1821, 1839, 1860, 1879, 1902, 1920.
I have no idea whether there are any climate data (sea temperature or 
otherwise) to justify a hypothesis that both phenomena. 
Do you have any suggestions?

2) We (Jon Cox and I) recently visited Colombia, and acquired (bought) temperature data
series (varying in length), mainly from the highlands (min & max) for
approximately 35 stations. They are on disk, so in case they are of 
any help to you, let us know.

3). We still have not got the monthly India data series (Rajasthan) for 
rainfall (and if possible also humidity, and temperature) to continue 
our work on remote sensing and epidemic forecasting there. You 
mentioned that you tried too to get these data too without result. In 
case you have been successful recently, we would be very interested! 
Alternatively, maybe the monsoon anomaly maps (per year) which Poona 
appears to release, might be useful too. Again, if you have any 
suggestions, we would be very obliged.

Hope your work is going well, and look forward to meeting again in the 
future. Best wishes, 

Menno Bouma