cc: "C G Kilsby" , "Jenkins, Geoff" , c.harpham@uea.ac.uk date: Wed Jun 3 09:21:33 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: Phone call... to: "Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC)" Kathryn, Had to rush off after the phone call last night. As you might have guessed from my comments on the phone yesterday, I didn't think much of Jacqui's arguments. I was alerted up to the attached a few minutes before - see section 7 (pages 61-62 in the pdf, which appear as pages 49/50). There seems a disconnect between the people Jacqui talks to and the real users who will access and use UKCP09. Chris and I know that EARWIG has been used by the EA extensively, but it is by people who know what they are doing. I don't think she meets real users, but managers. Her comments about the Thames Barrage showed this. They won't be interested in the WG, but in the marine report. Users will have to be re-educated in how they access and use UKCP09. I've been saying this all along. This is exactly what happened with UKCIP98 and UKCIP02. I think the learning curve will be much steeper for them this time. Perhaps UKCIP should be organizing some workshops post launch. Should we be discussing this on June 12? The real issue is that she has been lead to be believe that UKCP09 is much more certain in the projections, but in reality the opposite is probably true. When users get to see the results, they are going to say that there is too much uncertainty. As an aside the two pages in the attached has many inaccuracies. I've no idea who they consulted and who in DEFRA read these two pages. The first 4 paragraphs are OK. The next one is based in ignorance of what UKCP09 has done. The next distorts what IPCC 2007 said. The next distorts the word subjective. The next just shows that the authors know nothing about how climate modelling is done! The final three on the second page are just as bad, but they at least say that issues should be resolved once UKCP09 is released. They seem to want greater ranges in the projections - someone should tell them that is exactly what they are going to get. These two pages seems to have been written by someone who knows little about UKCP09 and more importantly who has not done any real quantitative impacts work in the past. I know you're not involved, but there is a briefing session about the National Risk Assessment call tomorrow afternoon. One thing that should be emphasized at the launch is that users should read all the reports and the guidance material before attempting to do anything. There is a lot to take in. I'd ignore anyone making comments the day after launch as they just won't have had time to read and digest what is in the reports. I think though that there are too many so-called climate experts out there who have already made up their minds - based on snippets of what has been done in UKCP09 and hearsay. After launch we might find out who these so-called experts are! On a more cheerful note at the end - we at UEA are very happy with the WG. We think it is working fine. Cheers Phil At 17:23 02/06/2009, Humphrey, Kathryn (ACC) wrote: Hi Phil, What are your thoughts on the phone call we just had? It sounds to us like a fundamental difference of opinion over the intelligence of the users and whether you should provide material that contains uncertainty at all! However itd be interesting to hear what you thought of Jacquis arguments. Kind Regards, Kathryn Kathryn Humphrey Research and Evidence Adapting to Climate Change Programme Defra tel 0207 238 3362 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------