date: Thu, 4 Jan 2007 16:29:32 -0000 from: "Folland, Chris" subject: RE: This and that to: "Phil Jones" Phil Please email a scan of your 1988 article. There has been some debate re seasonal f/c about whether serious N. Atlantic/Europe blocking might develop in next 3 weeks. There is a stratospheric warming occurring and a moderate if slightly fading El Nino which are conducive between them. But only a moderate signal exists in principle. Chris Prof. Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability Research Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 04 January 2007 16:15 To: Folland, Chris Subject: RE: This and that Chris, Will do. As long as you refer to my Climate Monitor article from 1988! Co-ordination worked fine on the 2006 numbers this year. So let's try and get the forecast in this time. Also , hopefully, we will be able to say how successful it will be. I just checked our web checking thing on google. There are over 150 with me, CRU and UEA in, in the last 3 hours! It seems as though the US has finally woken up. The funniest one was a British one, which also got a forecast from Piers Corbyn, who said it will be snowing by mid-Jan. Several have emailed in responses, saying he said that for mid-Dec as well!! Cheers Phil At 16:01 04/01/2007, you wrote: >Phil > >It will be done and its now second paper on the list. You can be a >reviewer! The amount of admin here has risen several fold this year and >my group has expanded by 1/3rd since Tuesday. Discuss sometime. > >Your own forecast has merely served to increase the profile of mine >here and everywhere else it seems! So don't worry - but next year we >should consult on this. The 2007 forecast got delayed here for >technical admin reasons - and Defras nervousness to some extent. > >Chris > > >Prof. Chris Folland >Head of Climate Variability Research > >Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United >Kingdom >Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk >Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 >Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 > (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) > Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor >of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > > > > >-----Original Message----- >From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] >Sent: 04 January 2007 13:51 >To: Folland, Chris >Subject: This and that > > > > Chris, > > > Hope your PC is back! > > May be worth considering writing up the Global T forecast > method for a short paper. It seems to have generated a lot of >interest. > Likely to get more each year, as with a 0.2 deg C trend per decade, > each El Nino event could make that year the warmest. Also > it could discuss the independence (or not) of El Nino from global > warming. Last is most difficult. > > It would be better to try and keep the forecast together with the > annual summary in one press release. Gets it over with in one go. > > Finally success with David Warrilow. He's found the said > DoE report from ages ago and is sending me a photocopy. > Also Geoff Jenkins and John Mitchell have been asked if they > can provide any more insight ! > > Cheers > Phil > > > > >Prof. Phil Jones >Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >University of East Anglia >Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >NR4 7TJ >UK >----------------------------------------------------------------------- >- >---- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----