date: Mon Sep 7 15:03:33 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Climate change research to: "Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC)" Bruce, Fine with me. I've put it on the CRU noticeboard - along with a copy of what was sent to the Pope. Cheers Phil At 14:47 07/09/2009, you wrote: Ta Ok if I circulate the exchange to colleagues to warn them in case similar issues arise. Bruce ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 07 September 2009 14:39 To: Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC) Subject: RE: Climate change research Bruce, I don't think many of them look at it. They are mostly people who correspond on the Climate Audit blog site. They all seem to have infinite time as they are all retired. This is another issue. All people working in the field have day to day jobs to do and don't want to spend evenings going on blog sites trying to put people right. Cheers Phil At 14:13 07/09/2009, you wrote: Thanks Phil Not very nice. Whats all this about? Who are these people who sign this? Bruce ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [ [2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 07 September 2009 09:40 To: Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC); Deborah Wargate Cc: Goodess Clare Dr (ENV) Subject: RE: Climate change research Deborah, Bruce, I'd just ignore the skeptics if I were you. I received the attached whilst I was away. I also got a hard copy as well as the letters this person sent to Gordon Brown and to the Pope! I send it as I noticed that Hans Schroder is on the list from the UK - at the end. The letter was also sent to numerous others including the American Geophysical Union. They sent it on to me and they are going to ignore it as well. As I said there is no point debating with these people. It is just time wasting. I have tried to engage with them in the past, but they refuse to listen or read anything I send them. As an aside, I'm on two WMO committees and am going to a meeting in Geneva next week. Also UK government decisions are not based on the basis of CRU data! These people get their information from blog sites such as Climate Audit. Cheers Phil At 11:45 01/09/2009, Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC) wrote: Deborah In the US, the attempt by large organisations to oppose climate change action via apparent grassroots activity is called 'astroturfing'. Grist is quite a good site to learn about these kind of things. See, for example, [3]http://www.grist.org/article/2009-08-17-astroturf-wars-continue-api-energy-citizen-ra llies/ Don't know where the cd comes from that your Dr Schroeder has passed to you, but it would not be surprising if, underneath all, is something similar. Keep away from so-called 'debates' and just quote the material from Phil and elsewhere - which is scientifically peer reviewed. For non peer-reviewed interest, but of real interest and concern, read about studies of Greenland ice and glacier melting in today's Guardian. Global temperature rises are not uniform around the world because of the disposition of continents and oceans and the Arctic, in particular, has warmed more than average. While the implications are unclear, the potential is worrying as you will read about in the paper today. For a relatively low-lying county such as Suffolk, this is more germane I would have thought than a debate with climate change deniers. It is possible, because of non-linear effects of increased warming in and around the Arctic that sea level rise this century could exceed the 4th assessment report estimates (and this did point out that such effects were not taken account of because they weren't yet easily modelled). Phil could advise you better than I what is current informed scientific thinking on this point but now is the time to start thinking about the impact of climate-change driver sea-level rise. Bruce ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 25 August 2009 12:03 To: Deborah Wargate; Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC) Cc: Goodess Clare Dr (ENV) Subject: RE: Climate change research Deborah, Getting into debates with people is something I'd like to avoid. Cheers Phil At 10:22 25/08/2009, Deborah Wargate wrote: Dear Phil Thank you for this information your help is much appreciated. Yes we have indeed - several vocal ones in fact but one in Dr Schroeder who is very keen to actually debate this with the establishment. Deborah Wargate SCDC Environmental Sustainability Officer 01394 444747 ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Phil Jones [ [4]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 25 August 2009 10:03 To: Deborah Wargate; Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC) Cc: Goodess Clare Dr (ENV) Subject: RE: Climate change research Bruce, Deborah, You seem to have one of the climate change deniers in your midst in Dr Schroeder! The web sites you have given Bruce provide some responses. Real Climate is a good one. There are numerous poor ones which keep on regurgitating the same myths. The Met Office site is good as well. There is another good one at New Scientist [5]http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462 As for this particular one, no climatologist would think that the world would warm year on year. Climate change caused by greenhouse gases is best viewed on the decadal timescale. On the year-to-year timescale, global temperatures are much more strongly influenced by El Nino and La Nina events. The former cause the world to be warmer and the latter cooler. We've been in a La Nina in 2007 and 2008 and are now moving to an El Nino, so 2009 will be warmer than the last 2 years. The next big El Nino (which may be soon of the current event continues) may make 2010 the warmest ever year. The sentences you want to explain this are in the CRU Information Sheet No 1. [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/ The 1990s were the warmest complete decade in the series. The warmest year of the entire series has been 1998, with a temperature of 0.546°C above the 1961-90 mean. Thirteen of the fourteen warmest years in the series have now occurred in the past fourteen years (1995-2008). The only year in the last fourteen not among the warmest fourteen is 1996 (replaced in the warm list by 1990). The period 2001-2008 (0.43°C above 1961-90 mean) is 0.19°C warmer than the 1991-2000 decade (0.24°C above 1961-90 mean). The last sentence is the crucial one. People should look at decadal-scale trends and not at individual years. At the decadal time scale the effects of El Nino and La Nina cancel. This sort of thing has happened before - the attached paper dispells these myths. It also shows that in a future climate model simulation there will be periods with little warming even though the temperature gets warmer by 4 degrees C by 2100. Sadly , there are still people out there who keep peddling the same misinformation. Cheers Phil At 07:29 25/08/2009, Deborah Wargate wrote: Hi Bruce Thank you very much - yes we have some very clever indvidiuals within our district who have presented me with a CD of information of which my few lines is a very brief summary of one element and they will no doubt be spreading the word locally. One of whom is very keen to have a discussion with scientific experts in the field regarding what he sees as dire misinformation regarding climate change, the greenhouse effect and human influence which is why I will now mention his name where usually I would keep it confidential, Dr Hans Schreuder. If such an oportunity did arise it could really help those of us who had to leave university far too early although whether Poles Apart can be brought together I am never sure. Yes real climate is a useful resource which I must confess I haven't looked at recently - I shall do so now. Kind regards Deborah ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC) [ [7]mailto:B.Tofield@uea.ac.uk] Sent: Mon 24/08/2009 18:53 To: Deborah Wargate Cc: Jones Philip Prof (ENV); Goodess Clare Dr (ENV) Subject: RE: Climate change research Hi Deborah I'm copying your e-mail to people more expert than myself in the detail of climate change measurement and modelling. Phil or Clare - could you perhaps send any relevant papers to Deborah. It is important that the Suffolk Climate Change Strategy gets the best advice it can - they are doing a great job overall. However, while it is sad that there seem still to be climate change deniers (who are probably responsible directly or indirectly for the response you quote) there are a number of sites that can provide helpful insight. One of the most useful is realclimate.org which needs a bit of exploring but can usually provide a helpful antidote to the lies that are otherwise peddled and which are difficult to refute. In respect of short-term fluctuations in long-term trends - which is what your responders are getting at I think - El Nino can have a significant impact. For information on this see [8]http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/07/global-trends-and-enso/ . Extracting a sentence from this: The warmest year designation (now in the absence of a strong El Niño) is more clearly seen to be 2005 (in GISTEMP) or either 2005 or 2001 (in HadCRUT3v). This last decade is still the warmest decade in the record, and the top 8 or 10 years (depending on the data source) are all in the last 10 years! The link to similar work is to [9]http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/82, see p9. Another place to look for correct information is the Met Office site, [10]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths/index.html . Here, the link to Fact 2 gives straightforward information about the recent and current situation. It's dire and it is important not to be put off taking action by stupid misinformation. Hope this helps - but the people in CRU are the real experts. Bruce This email may contain privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient please notify the sender and delete all copies. 'Low Carbon Innovation Centre' and 'CRed' are trading names of Low Carbon Innovation Centre Limited, a company registered in England (no. 06525180) with its registered office at The Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ The Carbon Connections fund is operated by Carbon Connections UK Limited, a company registered in England (no. 05906083) with its registered office at The Registry, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ Both Low Carbon Innovation Centre Limited and Carbon Connections UK Limited are wholly owned subsidiaries of the University of East Anglia Go green, keep it on screen. Think before you print - save energy and paper. ___________________________________________________________________________________ From: Deborah Wargate [Deborah.Wargate@suffolkcoastal.gov.uk] Sent: 24 August 2009 15:55 To: Tofield Bruce Dr (LCIC) Subject: Climate change research Dear Bruce Hope alls well. I am trawling through reponses to the SCDC climate change strategy to present a report to the Green Issues Task Group and one concerns me as I may well be challenged on it and it is not a piece of research I am familiar with: The response is: The premise that warming of the climate system is unequivocal is false research published by inter alia the climatic research unit of the University of East Anglia shows that the combined global land and marine surface temperature has fallen since 2004. Now unfortunately it does not give any more information as to the name of the research etc although I suspect looking at the CRU website it is Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones, 2006: Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. J. Geophysical Research 111, D12106, [11]doi:10.1029/2005JD006548 Do you know 1) where I could get a look at a copy of the above 2) if the person could be refering to anything else and where I can get copies of that If you can answer these queries and have any other thoughts that would be much appreciated. I am writing to a tight timescale - report due in on 3rd Sept. Kind regards Deborah Wargate _____________________________________________________________________ The information contained in this email or any of its attachments may be privileged or confidential and is intended for the exclusive use of the addressee. Any unauthorised use may be unlawful. If you receive this email by mistake, please advise the sender immediately by using the reply facility in your email software and then delete this email. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use, retain or disclose any information contained in this e-mail. Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Suffolk Coastal District Council. The Council reserves the right to monitor email communications on any part of its network. Suffolk Coastal District Council cannot guarantee that this message or any of its attachments has reached you complete and/or virus free and advises you to carry out appropriate virus checks. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ The information contained in this email or any of its attachments may be privileged or confidential and is intended for the exclusive use of the addressee. Any unauthorised use may be unlawful. If you receive this email by mistake, please advise the sender immediately by using the reply facility in your email software and then delete this email. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use, retain or disclose any information contained in this e-mail. Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Suffolk Coastal District Council. The Council reserves the right to monitor email communications on any part of its network. Suffolk Coastal District Council cannot guarantee that this message or any of its attachments has reached you complete and/or virus free and advises you to carry out appropriate virus checks. _____________________________________________________________________ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- _____________________________________________________________________ The information contained in this email or any of its attachments may be privileged or confidential and is intended for the exclusive use of the addressee. Any unauthorised use may be unlawful. If you receive this email by mistake, please advise the sender immediately by using the reply facility in your email software and then delete this email. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not use, retain or disclose any information contained in this e-mail. Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Suffolk Coastal District Council. The Council reserves the right to monitor email communications on any part of its network. Suffolk Coastal District Council cannot guarantee that this message or any of its attachments has reached you complete and/or virus free and advises you to carry out appropriate virus checks. _____________________________________________________________________ Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------