cc: Edward Cook , "Rosanne D'Arrigo" , Keith Briffa , Jan Esper , Rob Wilson date: Sun, 01 Jun 2008 08:33:28 -0400 from: Edward Cook subject: Re: Trieste complications to: David Frank Hi Dave, I just downloaded your powerpoint presentation from your server and looked at it. Very nice job! It really covers many of the issues regarding proxy uncertainty and tree rings. It is also really important not to let the instrumental people off the hook, especially after that debacle just published on by Thompson et al. in Nature concerning the SST corrections or lack there of. The recent Eos article by Vecchi likewise shows how much uncertainty remains in the instrumental SST fields. So it is increasingly clear to me, as I believe it is to you, that the climate data homogenization methods used can contribute significantly to the uncertainty in the reconstructions even when the proxies are typically assigned pretty much all blame. So while we need to be completely honest about the many large uncertainties in our tree-ring data and reconstructions, the instrumental data mob needs to be equally honest and upfront about how they are contributing significant uncertainty to the reconstructions as well. This is especially important at the lower frequencies, which makes time-scale dependent calibration even more difficult to objectively assess. Cheers, Ed ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: [1]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== On May 29, 2008, at 9:42 AM, David Frank wrote: Hi Ed. I guess i view this a bit less critically towards the people who did the corrections. Date: May 29, 2008 6:54:41 AM EDT To: Keith Briffa <[6]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk> Cc: Edward Cook <[7]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu> Subject: Re: Unavoidable cancellation also Hi Keith, I am very sorry to hear about Amy's medical problems. Hopefully, all will go well. Please give her my warmest regards and hope for a speedy recovery. You are of course absolutely right to cancel. The meeting won't be nearly as much fun without you however. I tried calling you about an hour ago. Will try again later. Do you have any powerpoint stuff prepared that you could give me to present? I will probably ask Dave Frank to help out too. I am working on the pc regression bootstrap now for single predictands and screened predictors, with some interesting results coming out. See below plotted in two different ways. The confidence limits are percentiles based on 1000 boostrap replications. I need to put in the much better bias corrected and accelerated BCa limits that explicitly allow for asymmetric confidence intervals, but that is more involved. I also haven't had time to extend it to full OSR yet, but that is more a programming issue than one related to anything theoretical. Ed ? ? ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: [8]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== On May 29, 2008, at 5:31 AM, Keith Briffa wrote: Lisa, Kim and Eystein (and Ed) I am very sorry - but I too must cancel at this late time. My daughter Amy has been unexpectedly taken to hospital and is awaiting an operation. At the moment she is fine - but the date of the operation has not been fixed. However, it is likely to be sometime next week. She will then stay in hospital for a few days and if all is well she will need looking after for some weeks. This is happening in Birmingham , where she is currently studying (some 200 miles from our home). I have been there for severakl days and have just returned to try to sort out commitments here in Norwich and abroad butI will need to go there for some period over the next few weeks. I am therefore, forced to cancel my participation in the Trieste CCLIVAR/PAGES meeting and the associated steering Committee meeting. This is completely unavoidable and I very much hoping that Ed Cook or Rosanne D'Arrigo will fill in for me . I know Ed is preparing something and I am happy to try and discuss points with him. This is the first time I have just returned from Birmingham and I will try to speak with Ed by phone today. I am asking my secretary to try to cancel flight tickets but his may be difficult now. Again I am sorry for this trouble - but I am sure you will appreciate my position. Keith At 14:09 28/05/2008, you wrote: Dear ricardo, Thanks so much for your prompt reply, even though we are sorry you cannot make it!!! Hope to have a future opportunity to welcome you to the ICTP.. all the best, Lisa On 28 May 2008, at 14:17, Ricardo Villalba wrote: Dear Lisa, Thanks for your message. Unfortunately I am not able to attend to the Workshop in Trieste. I will send my inputs to Kieth Briffa and other participants regarding high-resolution records in South America. Hope you have a very productive meeting. Best regards, Ricardo  ----- Original Message ----- From: Iannitti Lisa To: [9]ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 7:15 AM Subject: smr1972- CL Letter - Villalba Dear Dr. Villalba, did you receive the email I previously sent? ï¿1Z2I don't seem to have your accommodation form or any reply from you.. ï¿1Z2If you did sent something, I have never received it..ï¿1Z2 You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you will be attending? all the best, Lisa Workshop on 'Reducing and Representing Uncertainites in High-Resolution Proxy Data' June 9 - 11, 2008 ï¿1Z2(tel: +39 040 2240227,ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2 fax: +39 040 2240558,ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2 e-mail: [10]iannitti@ictp.it) Venue:ï¿1Z2 Adriatico Guesthouse - Kastlerï¿1Z2Lecture Hall activity web page: [11]http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/ Organizers:ï¿1Z2 K. Cobbï¿1Z2(Georgia Tech), T. Kiefer (PAGES) J. Loughï¿1Z2(AIMS),ï¿1Z2J. Ooverpeckï¿1Z2(U. Arizona),ï¿1Z2S. Tudhopeï¿1Z2(U. Edinburgh),ï¿1Z2F. Kucharskiï¿1Z2(ICTP) ________________________________________________________________________________ Dear Speaker, Please find aï¿1Z2scannedï¿1Z2copy of the official invitation letter for the above-mentioned activity and other relevant attachments, for your official purposes.ï¿1Z2 Please find attached an accommodation form which should be filled in and sent back to us [via e-mail]ï¿1Z2 as confirmation of your attendance and for advance guesthouse booking to (please note that no reservation can be made unless the form is emailed back to us) [however, if you have already returned the form, please disregard this]: ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2 ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2 [12]iannitti@ictp.it ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2 cc.:ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2 [13]operations@ictp.it [14]housing@ictp.it As soon as your form is processed by our housing office, confirmation of yourï¿1Z2guesthouse booking will be sent to you by email. For our internal pre-activity purposes (preliminary budget updates, etc.) , we would like to kindly request you to also send us your travel details once fixed. Furthermore,ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2a simple activity web page can be accessed atï¿1Z2 [15]http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2& an Agenda page [16]at:ï¿1Z2 [17]http://cdsagenda5.ictp.trieste.it/full_display.php?smr=0&ida=a0718 1 ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2where the programï¿1Z2(once completed)ï¿1Z2and other relevant materials, will be displayed.ï¿1Z2 For this reason, we kindly ask you to send a copy of your final notes (preferably, already in a pdf format or, if not possible, in powerpointï¿1Z2 [to be converted into pdf locally])ï¿1Z2 via e-mail, by the end of May, ï¿1Z2to:ï¿1Z2 ï¿1Z[18]2iannitti@ictp.it ï¿1Z2 ï¿1Z2 ï¿1Z2 to be uploaded on the web for world-wide access.ï¿1Z2 If you do not want them to be uploaded, please specify this in your return email.ï¿1Z2ï¿1Z2 We would also like to compile a CD of the lecturing materials to be handed out [possibly] at the end of the activity to all attendees, if we have the notes in advance or if not, to be mailed out soon afterwards. ï¿1Z2 For your kind reference, Pre-arrival and General Information on the ICTP is also available on the Centre's website atï¿1Z2 [19]http://www.ictp.it/pages/info/visiting.html. ï¿1Z2 Once again, we would like to thank you for having accepted to join this event and for your kind collaboration, and look forward to welcoming you to the ICTP in June.ï¿1Z2 All the best. Lisa Iannitti Secretary-in-charge (on behalf of the Organizers) ******************************************************************************* Lisa Iannitti âS¯"We are not permitted to choose the International Centre for frame of our destiny.... but what we put into Theoretical Physics (ICTP) it, is ours..."  -  Dag HammarskjöldâS¯ of UNESCO and the IAEA Strada Costiera 11 34014 Trieste, Italy tel.: +39 - 040 - 2240227 fax.: +39 - 040 - 2240558 ICTP website: [20]http://www.ictp.it/ Dear Dr. Villalba, did you receive the email I previously sent? I don't seem to have  your accommodation form or any reply from you.. If you did sent  something, I have never received it.. You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you  will be attending? all the best, Lisa -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [21]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Hi Dave, I am forwarding on to you an email I just sent to Keith in response to his unfortunate cancellation of his Trieste trip. As you can tell from his email and my reply, his daughter Amy is ill and Keith needs to be there for her operation. I also just got off the phone talking with Keith. It sounds like Amy will be fine, but the operation probably won't happen until next week. In the meantime, Keith will be sending a few powerpoint slides to me on what he would have talked about, but obviously his cancellation changes things and heaps a lot of what he would talk about on to me. Please bring some presentation stuff with you as well. Maybe we can do a bit of a tag team presentation. The meeting is all rather informal, so it shouldn't be too difficult. Please pass on my regards to Papa Esper! How much sleep has he gotten lately? Cheers, Ed ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: [22]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== Begin forwarded message: From: Edward Cook <[23]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu> Date: May 29, 2008 6:54:41 AM EDT To: Keith Briffa <[24]k.briffa@uea.ac.uk> Cc: Edward Cook <[25]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu> Subject: Re: Unavoidable cancellation also Hi Keith, I am very sorry to hear about Amy's medical problems. Hopefully, all will go well. Please give her my warmest regards and hope for a speedy recovery. You are of course absolutely right to cancel. The meeting won't be nearly as much fun without you however. I tried calling you about an hour ago. Will try again later. Do you have any powerpoint stuff prepared that you could give me to present? I will probably ask Dave Frank to help out too. I am working on the pc regression bootstrap now for single predictands and screened predictors, with some interesting results coming out. See below plotted in two different ways. The confidence limits are percentiles based on 1000 boostrap replications. I need to put in the much better bias corrected and accelerated BCa limits that explicitly allow for asymmetric confidence intervals, but that is more involved. I also haven't had time to extend it to full OSR yet, but that is more a programming issue than one related to anything theoretical. Ed ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: [26]drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu Phone: 845-365-8618 Fax: 845-365-8152 ================================== On May 29, 2008, at 5:31 AM, Keith Briffa wrote: Lisa, Kim and Eystein (and Ed) I am very sorry - but I too must cancel at this late time. My daughter Amy has been unexpectedly taken to hospital and is awaiting an operation. At the moment she is fine - but the date of the operation has not been fixed. However, it is likely to be sometime next week. She will then stay in hospital for a few days and if all is well she will need looking after for some weeks. This is happening in Birmingham , where she is currently studying (some 200 miles from our home). I have been there for severakl days and have just returned to try to sort out commitments here in Norwich and abroad butI will need to go there for some period over the next few weeks. I am therefore, forced to cancel my participation in the Trieste CCLIVAR/PAGES meeting and the associated steering Committee meeting. This is completely unavoidable and I very much hoping that Ed Cook or Rosanne D'Arrigo will fill in for me . I know Ed is preparing something and I am happy to try and discuss points with him. This is the first time I have just returned from Birmingham and I will try to speak with Ed by phone today. I am asking my secretary to try to cancel flight tickets but his may be difficult now. Again I am sorry for this trouble - but I am sure you will appreciate my position. Keith At 14:09 28/05/2008, you wrote: Dear ricardo, Thanks so much for your prompt reply, even though we are sorry you cannot make it!!! Hope to have a future opportunity to welcome you to the ICTP.. all the best, Lisa On 28 May 2008, at 14:17, Ricardo Villalba wrote: Dear Lisa, Thanks for your message. Unfortunately I am not able to attend to the Workshop in Trieste. I will send my inputs to Kieth Briffa and other participants regarding high-resolution records in South America. Hope you have a very productive meeting. Best regards, Ricardo  ----- Original Message ----- From: [27]Iannitti Lisa To: [28]ricardo@lab.cricyt.edu.ar Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2008 7:15 AM Subject: smr1972- CL Letter - Villalba Dear Dr. Villalba, did you receive the email I previously sent? ï¿SI don't seem to have your accommodation form or any reply from you.. ï¿SIf you did sent something, I have never received it..ï¿S You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you will be attending? all the best, Lisa Workshop on 'Reducing and Representing Uncertainites in High-Resolution Proxy Data' June 9 - 11, 2008 ï¿S(tel: +39 040 2240227,ï¿Sï¿S fax: +39 040 2240558,ï¿Sï¿S e-mail: [29]iannitti@ictp.it) Venue:ï¿S Adriatico Guesthouse - Kastlerï¿SLecture Hall activity web page: [30]http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/ Organizers:ï¿S K. Cobbï¿S(Georgia Tech), T. Kiefer (PAGES) J. Loughï¿S(AIMS),ï¿SJ. Ooverpeckï¿S(U. Arizona),ï¿SS. Tudhopeï¿S(U. Edinburgh),ï¿SF. Kucharskiï¿S(ICTP) ________________________________________________________________________________ Dear Speaker, Please find aï¿Sscannedï¿Scopy of the official invitation letter for the above-mentioned activity and other relevant attachments, for your official purposes.ï¿S Please find attached an accommodation form which should be filled in and sent back to us [via e-mail]ï¿S as confirmation of your attendance and for advance guesthouse booking to (please note that no reservation can be made unless the form is emailed back to us) [however, if you have already returned the form, please disregard this]: ï¿Sï¿S ï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿S [31]iannitti@ictp.it ï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿Sï¿S cc.:ï¿Sï¿Sï¿S [32]operations@ictp.it [33]housing@ictp.it As soon as your form is processed by our housing office, confirmation of yourï¿Sguesthouse booking will be sent to you by email. For our internal pre-activity purposes (preliminary budget updates, etc.) , we would like to kindly request you to also send us your travel details once fixed. Furthermore,ï¿Sï¿Sa simple activity web page can be accessed atï¿S[34] http://users.ictp.it/~smr1972/ï¿Sï¿S& an Agenda page [35]at:ï¿S[36] http://cdsagenda5.ictp.trieste.it/full_display.php?smr=0&ida=a07181 ï¿Sï¿Swhere the programï¿S(once completed)ï¿Sand other relevant materials, will be displayed.ï¿S For this reason, we kindly ask you to send a copy of your final notes (preferably, already in a pdf format or, if not possible, in powerpointï¿S [to be converted into pdf locally])ï¿S via e-mail, by the end of May, ï¿Sto:ï¿S ï¿S[37]iannitti@ictp.it ï¿S ï¿S ï¿S to be uploaded on the web for world-wide access.ï¿S If you do not want them to be uploaded, please specify this in your return email.ï¿Sï¿S We would also like to compile a CD of the lecturing materials to be handed out [possibly] at the end of the activity to all attendees, if we have the notes in advance or if not, to be mailed out soon afterwards. ï¿S For your kind reference, Pre-arrival and General Information on the ICTP is also available on the Centre's website atï¿S[38] http://www.ictp.it/pages/info/visiting.html. ï¿S Once again, we would like to thank you for having accepted to join this event and for your kind collaboration, and look forward to welcoming you to the ICTP in June.ï¿S All the best. Lisa Iannitti Secretary-in-charge (on behalf of the Organizers) ___________________________________________________________________________________ ******************************************************************************* Lisa Iannitti âS¯"We are not permitted to choose the International Centre for frame of our destiny.... but what we put into Theoretical Physics (ICTP) it, is ours..."  -  Dag HammarskjöldâS¯ of UNESCO and the IAEA Strada Costiera 11 34014 Trieste, Italy tel.: +39 - 040 - 2240227 fax.: +39 - 040 - 2240558 ICTP website: [39]http://www.ictp.it/ ___________________________________________________________________________________ Dear Dr. Villalba, did you receive the email I previously sent? I don't seem to have  your accommodation form or any reply from you.. If you did sent  something, I have never received it.. You are on Km Cobb's list of attendees and I was wondering if you  will be attending? all the best, Lisa -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [40]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/