cc: Keith Alverson , Ayako Abe-Ouchi date: Mon, 27 Jan 2003 10:21:46 -0500 from: Mike MacCracken subject: IUGG Symposium MC10 Invitation to: robert.mendelsohn@yale.edu, rprinn@mit.edu, socci.tony@epa.gov, sumi@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp, tcrowley@moorcock.acpub.duke.edu, trenbert@ncar.ucar.edu, wcollins@ucar.edu, wmw@ncar.ucar.edu, Akio Kitoh , Alan Robock , Albert Arking , André Berger , Andrei Sokolov , Atul Jain , axel timmermann , Ben Santer , Bill Randel , Bryant McAvaney , Byron Boville , CDIAC , Chris Bretherton , Curtis Covey , Dave Pollard , David Battisti , David Karoly , David Randall , David Rind , David Viner , Don Wuebbles , Eric Barron , Eugene Rozanov , gary yohe , George Boer , Gera Stenchikov , Granger Morgan , Hadi Dowlatabadi , Herve LETREUT , James Hack , James Hansen , James Risbey , Jean Jouzel , Jeong-Woo Kim , Jerry Meehl , JOEL SCHERAGA , Joel Smith , John Katzenberger , Jonathan Gregory , Jonathan Overpeck , Joyce Penner , Juerg Beer , Karol , Keith Shine , Ken Caldeira , Ken Sperber , Klaus Keller , kodera kunihiko , Konstantin Vinnikov , Larry Gates , Laurie Geller , Marty Hoffert , Maurice Blackmon , Michael Prather , Michael Rampino , Mike Hulme , Mike MacCracken Dear Colleagues: This message is to invite you to submit a paper for presentation at the upcoming IUGG Assembly in Sapporo, where there will be a number of very interesting sessions on climate and climate change (further information is available at: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/jamstec-e/iugg/index.html ). Among these sessions is MC10, which is being convened to consider past examples and future possiblities for rapid or surprising changes--so nonlinearities, exceedances of thresholds, irreversibilities, etc. In convening this symposium, rapid is meant to imply changes that are unusual in their context (could well include an unusual rate of change in the frequency of some weather event as a result of a small change in climate), that result from terms of processes not generally included in GCMs (e.g., rapid glacial changes) , and large changes that seem to result from small climatic shifts (e.g., change of the thermohaline circulation). The prospectus for the symposium is as follows: MC10 Prospects for and Past Examples of Unexpected Nonlinearities, Thresholds, and Surprises in the Climate System (ICCl) Although the projections of future changes in climate tend to be gradual, experience has provided a number of examples of relatively large climate changes occurring over relatively short periods of time or that were quite unexpected. The purpose of this symposium is to explore the potential and likelihood for unexpected nonlinearities, thresholds, and surprises occurring as a result of changes in large- to global-scale physical or environmental systems. Examples could include changes in the global thermohaline circulation, shifts in the atmospheric circulation, thresholds that might initiate rapid change of ice sheets or ecosystems, sudden breaching of coastal Barriers, thresholds that might lead to large changes in atmospheric chemistry or biogeochemical cycles, unusual changes in natural forcings, or potential destabilization of methane clathrates. Papers are invited on both analyses of past events and prospects for future such events. Conveners: Michael C. MacCracken, 6308 Berkshire Drive, Bethesda MD 20814, United States, tel: +1-301-564-4255, fax: +1-301-564-4255, mmaccrac@comcast.net Keith Alverson, PAGES International Project Office, Baerenplatz 2, 3011 Bern, Switzerland, tel: +41-31-312 31 33, fax: +41-31-312 31 68, keith.alverson@pages.unibe.ch Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 153- 8904, Japan, tel: +81-3-5453-3955, fax. +81-3-5453-3964, email: abeouchi@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp The Symposium is to be held Wednesday and Thursday of the first week of the IUGG Congress (so July 2-3). Abstracts need to be submitted electronically by January 30. Please pass along this invitation to colleagues whom you think might be interested. Mike MacCracken