date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 10:48:21 -0400 from: Gabi Hegerl subject: Re: submitted manuscript to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, I definitely want to cite this paper! Right now, my paper only has pers com for the ECHO-G sensitivity being similar to our EBM sensitivity of 2.5 in the electronic supplement - that definitely needs a citation (and science wants written permission for pers coms so I postponed that to the revised version, but a paper to cite is much better anyway - I should have asked you but had run out of time so postponed that.....sorry!!!). I am still a bit nonplussed that this model has relatively high decadal variability (more than our reconstruction unforced residual) and a quite modest sensitivity - do you know why? (Suki had this theory based on stochastic climate model theory that level of variability is related to climate sensitivity so high sens high var, but it seems to not always work like this) paper looks nice - I don't think it affects our main result that the reconstruction technique works since for that test the model only needs somewhat decent teleconnections but not necessarily everything realistic) - I thought there must be some drift in one of the runs because the inter runs variability has a trend which makes no sense unless one of the runs drift. But I need to consider your results when looking again at my single fingerprint detection - I don't think it changes things, but it will change discussion of differences a bit - although i think that the overestimated volcanism is probably partly due to forcing differences. Gabi Tim Osborn wrote: > Dear Gabi and Tom, > > We finished off that paper I told Gabi about (I had Tom's email > address wrong last time), investigating the behaviour of the ECHO-G > "Erik" simulation. It was submitted to Climate Dynamics earlier this > week. > > I thought you might be interested to see it, so I've attached a PDF of > the submitted version. It seems that we both submitted our papers at > the same time (Keith told me that you'd submitted yours too)! If it's > appropriate to cross-reference them, then I guess something suitable > could be added to each at the revision stage (assuming reviews are > favourable!). > > Best wishes > > Tim > > PS. Keith and I need to talk about which model runs to include in the > IPCC diagram. We'll get back to you when we've talked. > Dr Timothy J Osborn > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Gabriele Hegerl Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Box 90227 Duke University, Durham NC 27708 Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833 email: hegerl@duke.edu, http://www.env.duke.edu/faculty/bios/hegerl.html