cc: Simon Mason date: Fri Feb 27 12:18:00 2009 from: Phil Jones subject: Re: temperature specialist to: Madeleine Thomson Madeleine, I've looked at this paper and it only looks at temperature and precipitation data for the period 1966-1995. This paper is the one you gave me the link for. If you meant to attach another, then I have not got it. I don't have access to papers (26-28) which may use longer paper. If though they use ref 34 or a more recent version (attached) then there is much infilling of data in CRU TS 2.1 in much of Africa. Ref 34 and the attached shouldn't be relied on for long-term trends when there is little available data in early decades of the 20th century. If there is no observational data then the gridded reduces to putting in the average temperature and rainfall for the 1961-90 period. Simon will know what I'm talking about! Cheers Phil At 14:03 25/02/2009, Madeleine Thomson wrote: Dear Phil I was given your name as a specialist in temperature analysis in Africa and am I am writing to you to ask if you could share some of your knowledge on temperature and help me better understand whether or not there is evidence of warming trends in the East African highlands over the last century. My question relates to the discussions in the literature over the last few years re the role that temperature increases may have played in the observed increases in malaria epidemics in Kenya in particular (Kericho) I am not trying to further the question - has climate change resulted in increases in malaria (for which there is already an extensive literature) but rather try and understand the importance or otherwise of a paper by Simon Hay and colleagues from Oxford (Meteorologic Influences on Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in the Highland Tea Estates of Kericho, Western Kenya Nature 2002;415:905-9 - [1]http://origin.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol8no12/pdfs/02-0077.pdf) in which they analysed meteorological data from 1901 to 1995 for four highland sites where malaria cases are on the rise in East Africa Kericho in western Kenya, Kabale in south-western Uganda, Gikonkko in southern Rwanda, and Muhanga in northern Burundi. For each month, the researchers determined the average temperature, as well as the average minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall and vapour pressure. After analysing the 95-years' worth of data, the team found no significant shifts in temperature or vapour pressure at any of the four sites. Rainfall had increased at only one, Muhanga. The results of this paper were presented at a recent meeting with the statement that there is no evidence for warming in East Africa over the last century. Is this really the case - that there no evidence of a warming trend generally in East Africa - or specifically at these sites. I have seen scattered reports in the literature suggesting that there have been strong warming trends over this time period but have yet to find a consolidated analysis. In particular I am interested in trends in minimum temperature which are likely to be most relevant to the malaria problem. I attach the paper of interest for your reference. I look forward to your reply. Best Regards Madeleine Madeleine C. Thomson Ph.D. Senior Research Scientist Director Impacts Research Chair Africa Regional Programme International Research Institute for Climate and Society The Earth Institute at Columbia University Lamont Campus Palisades, 10964 New York Tel: 1 845 680 4413 Fax: 1 845 680 4864 web [2]http://iri.columbia.edu The IRI is a PAHO-WHO Collaborating Centre for Climate Sensitive Diseases Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------