cc: Fortunat Joos , Jonathan Overpeck , Stefan Rahmstorf , Anders Levermann , Eva Bauer , Gian-Kasper Plattner , Eystein Jansen , Keith Briffa date: Thu, 9 Feb 2006 15:01:05 -0700 from: Jonathan Overpeck subject: Re: EMIC millennium runs to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim and gang - Tim, the fig panel looks good to me. I would think seriously about adding an instrumental line (e.g., same as chap 3 mean NH) - can this be done w/ your choice of ref period? Not the end of the world if we leave it off, in my opinion. EVERYONE - please send feedback on any issues straight to Tim - his goal is to finalize this figure this week. Tim and Keith - think tables for descriptions of all the curves/refs instead of captions. Either way is space-consuming, but the table approach will be less messy. Nice job - really like the way we're handling the obs data now. best, peck >Dear all, > >I've attached a copy of the figure that I've >drawn from the Bern2.5cc and Climber2 data that >I was sent (thank you Eva and Kasper for the >data). > >This isn't necessarily the final version of the >figure - I have to talk some more with Keith >about it, and of course with Peck and Eystein >too. But I thought I'd circulate this version >now to get your views/feedback. > >Some information about the diagram: > >This is labelled as panel (d) because it will >probably be added to an existing diagram that >showed forcings and NH temperatures from >published model simulations. > >The coloured lines show the model results as >indicated in the legend. I have simply labelled >them with the model name, an abbreviation for >the solar forcing (WLS or Bard25) and an >indication of whether only natural (Nat) or all >(All) forcings were included. I can change the >labelling to suit everyone. You will also see >that I haven't included the "Bard08" forcing, >because this gave almost identical results to >"WLS" forcing. All series have been 30-year >smoothed. > >The grey shading is our current way of >presenting the evidence from proxy-based >reconstructions of NH temperature (or part of >the NH in some cases). The darker the grey, the >more reconstructions overlap that point. We >haven't included any information from >instrumental temperatures, and thus the 20th >century grey band is relatively wide because >even in the 20th century it is based upon the >uncertainty in the proxy reconstructions. > >Finally, note that everything is expressed as >anomalies from a pre-20th century reference >period (1500-1899) to be consistent with the >other panels of this figure. This reference >period is used for the grey shading of the >reconstructions as well as the model >simulations. It shows the divergence of the All >and Nat simulations in the 19th and 20th >centuries nicely. > >Best regards > >Tim > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:emics1.pdf (PDF /«IC») (00112361) >Dr Timothy J Osborn >Climatic Research Unit >School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > >e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >phone: +44 1603 592089 >fax: +44 1603 507784 >web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/