Noteworthy papers -- topics:
Sea-level rise acceleration?
climate models predict that rising CO2 levels should cause accelerated sea
level rise, sea level measurements show that, thus far, in response to roughly 3/4 century
of substantial anthropogenically-driven CO2 increases, there has been no
detectable acceleration in the rate of sea level rise. In fact, some studies have detected small
a deceleration (slowing). Here are some papers which have
reported the lack of acceleration in rate of sea level rise (h/t to Alberto
Boretti, Robert Dean & Doug Lord):
- Douglas B (1992).
Global Sea Level Acceleration. J. Geophysical Research, Vol. 97, No. C8, pp. 12,699-12,706, 1992.
B and Peltier W R (2002). The Puzzle of Global Sea-Level Rise.
Physics Today 55(3):35-40.
- Daly J (2003). Tasmanian
Sea Levels: The 'Isle of the Dead' Revisited. [Internet].
- Daly J (2004). Testing
the Waters: A Report on Sea Levels for the Greening Earth
- Jevrejeva S, et al (2006).
Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records.
J. Geophysical Research, 111, C09012, 2006.
- Holgate SJ
(2007). On the decadal rates of sea level change during the twentieth
century. Geophysical Research Letters. 34, L01602.
- Wunsch R, Ponte R and Heimbach
P (2007). Decadal trends in sea level patterns: 1993-2004. Journal of
- Woodworth P, et al (2009).
Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi-decade and century timescales.
International Journal of Climatology, Volume 29, Issue 6, pages 777-789, May 2009.
- You ZJ, Lord DB, and Watson PJ (2009).
Estimation of Relative Mean Sea Level Rise From Fort Denison Tide Gauge Data.
Proceedings of the 19th Australasian Coastal and Ocean Engineering Conference,
Wellington, NZ, September 2009.
- Wenzel M and Schröter J (2010). Reconstruction of regional mean
sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks. Journal
of Geophysical Research - Oceans. 115:C08013.
- Mörner N-A (2010a). Sea level changes in Bangladesh
new observational facts. Energy and Environment. 21(3):235-249.
- Mörner N-A (2010b). Some problems in the
reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes with time.
Quaternary International. 221(1-2):3-8.
- Mörner N-A (2010c). There Is No Alarming Sea Level
Rise! 21st Century Science & Technology. Fall 2010:7-17.
JR and Dean RG (2011a). Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide
Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses. Journal of
Coastal Research. 27:409-417.
JR and Dean RG (2011b). J. R. Houston and R. G. Dean (2011) Reply to: Rahmstorf, S. and Vermeer, M., 2011. Discussion of: Houston, J.R. and
Dean, R.G., 2011. Sea-Level Acceleration Based on U.S. Tide
Gauges and Extensions of Previous Global-Gauge Analyses.
Journal of Coastal Research. Volume 27, Issue 4: pp. 788-790.
PJ (2011). Is There Evidence Yet of
Acceleration in Mean Sea Level Rise around Mainland Australia? Journal
of Coastal Research. 27:368-377.
- Modra B and Hesse S (2011),
NSW Ocean Water Level. 21st NSW Coastal
Conference. (or here)
- Mörner N-A, (2011a). Setting the frames of
expected future sea level changes by exploring past geological sea
level records. Chapter 6 of book, D Easterbrook, Evidence-Based
Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN: 978-0-12-385956-3.
- Mörner N-A, (2011b). The Maldives:
A measure of sea level changes and sea level ethics. Chapter 7 of book, D
Easterbrook, Evidence-Based Climate Science, 2011 Elsevier B.V. ISBN:
- Boretti A (2012a). Short Term Comparison of
Climate Model Predictions and Satellite Altimeter Measurements of Sea
Levels. Coastal Engineering, 60, pp. 319-322. doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2011.10.005.
(Also, an article
about this paper.)
- Boretti A (2012b). Is there any support in the
long term tide gauge data to the claims that parts of Sydney will be swamped by rising
sea levels? Coastal Engineering, 64, pp. 161-167.
- Hughes W (2012),
Continued existence of Maori canals near Blenheim
in New Zealand indicates a stable relative sea level over 200
- Boretti A and Watson T (2012). The
inconvenient truth: Ocean Levels are not accelerating in Australia.
Energy & Environment.
- Burton D
(2012). Comments on “Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of
sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island,
New York,” by Shepard, et al. Natural
S and Vahrenholt F (2012). Fallstudien aus aller Welt belegen: Keine Beschleunigung des Meeresspiegelanstiegs
während der letzten 30 Jahre. (Case
studies from around the world: no evidence of accelerating sea level rise
over the last 30 years - English
P (2012). Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating? [Internet].
- Schmith T, et al (2012),
Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods.
Journal of Climate, 2012, American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00598.1
- Mörner N-A and
Parker A (2013). Present-to-future sea level changes: The Australian case,
Environmental Science, An Indian Journal, ESAIJ, 8(2), 2013 [43-51]
- Scafetta, N (2013a).
Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming.
Pattern Recognition in Physics. 1, 37-57, 2013.
- Scafetta N (2014).
Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes. Climate Dynamics,
- Plus, according to news reports,
several papers suppressed by the New South Wales, Australia government.
(Plus commentary here
Here's another list of peer-reviewed
papers reporting the lack of measurable acceleration in rate of sea level rise:
Note: Among the most extreme predictions of accelerated
sea level rise are those from German climatologist
How long should an LTT† sea level record be?
Multidecadal oscillations in regional sea levels mean that at least 50-60 years
of sea level data is required to establish a robust
†Long Term Trend. See:
- Schlesinger, M. & Ramankutty, N. (1994), An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years.
Nature, Vol. 367, pp. 723-726 (24 February 1994),
(p.1 is here)
- Douglas, B. (1995). Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation.
Reviews of Geophysics 33(S1): doi:10.1029/95RG00355. issn: 8755-1209.
- Douglas B (1997).
Global Sea Rise: a Redetermination, Surveys in Geophysics,
Vol. 18, No. 2-3 (1997), 279-292,
- Klyashtorin, L. (2001), UN FAO Fisheries Technical Paper 410: Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations
of Commercial Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting,
ISBN 92‑5‑104695‑6, ISSN 0429‑9345, 86 pp.
(see p. 5)
- Klyashtorin, L., and Lyubushin, A. (2007),
Cyclic Climate Changes and Fish Productivity,
VNIRO Publishing, 2007. 224 p. ISBN 978-5-85382-339-6.
- Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. L. Woodworth (2008), Recent global sea level
acceleration started over 200 years ago? Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611 (see p. 3).
- Zervas, C. (2009), NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 053,
Sea Level Variations of the United States, 1854 - 2006 (see p. xiii)
- Scafetta, N. (2012), "...an interval of just 30 years is the worst that can be chosen because it
is half 60-year cycle, and it happened that for SLR the period 1975-2005 had this 60-year cycle during its
warming phase (the temperature warming phase was about 1970-2000). So, if you fit the last 30-40 years you
get an overestimation of the real trend." [private communication]
- Chambers, D., M.A. Merrifield, and R. S. Nerem (2012). Is there a 60-year oscillation in global
mean sea level? Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2012GL052885
- Lüdecke H-J, Hempelmann A, & Weiss C O (2013).
Multi-periodic climate dynamics: spectral analysis of long-term instrumental and proxy temperature records,
Clim. Past, 9, 447-452, 2013, doi:10.5194/cp-9-447-2013,
and related article.
- Scafetta, N (2013b).
Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles.
Earth-Science Reviews. 126, 321-357. (pdf)
- Scafetta, N (2013c).
Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs.
Energy & Environment. 24(3-4), 455496. (pdf)
- Also, Scafetta N (2014), above.
passes for science includes opinion, arguments-from-authority, dramatic press releases, and fuzzy notions of consensus generated by preselected groups. This is not science.”
Climatologist John Christy, Sept. 20, 2012
What a mess!
The Scientific Method is
what distinguishes “science” from other types of study. It is an algorithm or process
for investigating the physical world. Here's how it is supposed to work, in seven steps:
- The scientist observes the available data.
- He formulates an hypothesis to explain the observations.
- He derives testable predictions from the hypothesis.
- He devises tests or observations to test the testable predictions.
- He does the tests or makes the observations.
- If the test results match the predictions, he cries “eureka!” and
publishes. He can now properly call his hypothesis a theory or theoretical model.
He publishes it along with his data and detailed calculations, so that other
scientists can reproduce and verify his work.
- If the test results fail to match the predictions, the theory is said to be
“falsified,” so he discards or revises it and starts over at step 2,
with the new observations or test results added to the body of available data.
Step 7 is the test
of a scientist's integrity. If, instead of discarding or revising falsified
theories or models, a disappointed researcher revises the data, to make it
fit his predictions, he's no scientist worthy of the name.
“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it disagrees with experiment, it's wrong.” - Richard Feynman (1964)
Unfortunately, much of what
passes for “science” these days fails that test. Here is some recommended reading:
- What is Science?, by Richard Feynman, 1966.
Cargo Cult Science,
by Richard Feynman, 1974. (This part is
especially relevant to climatology.)
- Getting Along Without Doomsday, by Bryan Magee, 1975. (h/t Prof. Thayer Watkins)
- Aliens Cause Global Warming, by Michael Crichton, 2003.
- The Peer Review System: Is Climate Science Politically Corrupt? by John L. Daly, 2004.
- Why Most Published Research Findings Are False, by John P. A. Ioannidis, 2005. PLoS Med 2(8): e124. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124.
- A Junk Science Christmas Carol, Steven Milloy, Fox News, 22 December 2005.
- The Wegman Report, 2006, highlights, and an article.
- Cereal-induced gender selection? Most likely a multiple testing false positive, by Stan Young, Heejung Bang & Kutluk Oktay, 2008.
- Tricking Yourself Into Cherry-Picking, by Lucia Liljegren, 2009.
- How Science Will Get Rid Of The AGW Dogma,
by Maurizio Morabito, 2009.
- Deming, data and observational studies: A process out of control and needing fixing, by Stan Young & Alan Karr, 2011.
- Scientific Heresy,
RSA 2011 Angus Millar lecture,
by Matt Ridley.
- Trust Your Science? Open Your Data and Code,
Victoria Stodden, Amstat News,
American Statistical Association, July 2011 (or pdf).
- Science publishing: The trouble with retractions,
Nature 478, 26-28 (2011), doi:10.1038/478026a (or pdf), and blog discussion.
- What doctors don't know about the drugs they prescribe, a
TED Talk by Dr. Ben Goldacre, April 2012.
- Replication studies: Bad copy,
Nature Vol. 485, pp. 298-300 (17 May 2012), doi:10.1038/485298a.
This was one of the articles featured in Nature's 2013 Special
Report: Challenges in Irreproducible Research.
- Open Your Minds and Share Your Results (editorial),
Nature 486, 441 (28 June 2012) doi:10.1038/486441a,
- Trust-me science, by Stan Young, 2012.
- A textbook example of groupthink, by Paul MacRae, 2012.
- Statistical Follies and Epidemiology, a lecture by William Matthew ("Matt") Briggs, Ph.D., 2012.
a scientist becomes a con man, by Yudhijit Bhattacharjee, NY Times Magazine, 2013,
and commentary by Bruce Webster,
and Janet Stemwedel
(and part two).
- Redefine misconduct as distorted reporting
(how to cope with an epidemic of scientific misconduct),
Daniele Fanelli, Nature Vol. 494, p. 149 (14 February 2013),
- Opinion: A Wolf in Sheeps Clothing,
Edward Archer, The Scientist, Oct. 22, 2013. (Discussion here.)
- Revised standards for statistical evidence,
Valen E. Johnson,
Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, Oct. 9, 2013 (print Nov. 11, 2013),
(See also the discussion at WUWT,
esp. Prof. Robert G. Brown's comment here, and
the article in Nature here.)
research: Trouble at the lab, The Economist, Oct. 19, 2013 (or here).
- Scientific Groupthink and Gay Parenting,
Richard E. Redding, adapted from
Society, Vol. 50, Issue 5, pp. 439-446 (October 2013),
- The Availability of Research Data Declines Rapidly with Article Age,
Timothy H. Vines, et al, Current Biology, Dec. 19, 2013,
- A Finger On the Scales, by Kevin W. Glass, Townhall.com, Jan. 25, 2014.
the effects of subjective and objective decision making in scientific peer review,
Park, Peacey & Munafò, Nature Vol. 506, pp. 93-96 (6 February 2014),
The paper is paywalled, but I contacted one of the authors, and he kindly sent me a copy. Here are a few quotes.
- To make science better, watch out for statistical flaws,
by Tom Siegfried, ScienceNews, 7 February 2014. (See also the discussion at WUWT.)
- Scientific method: Statistical errors,
Regina Nuzzo, Nature Vol. 506, pp. 150-152 (13 February 2014), doi:10.1038/506150a.
"P values, the 'gold standard' of statistical validity, are not as reliable as many scientists assume."
This was one of the papers featured in a Science News Daily "Cluster" report.
- Not all science is created equal,
by John Ioannidis, Chemistry World, 16 October 2014.
- Science is often flawed; It's time we embraced that,
by Julia Belluz and Steven Hoffman, Vox, 13 May 2015.
(See also a related story
about how the biggest news in Social Science in 2014 turned out to be fraudulent.)
- Science publication is hopelessly compromised, say journal editors,
American Council on Science and Health, 19 May 2015, and related video.
- I Fooled
Millions Into Thinking Chocolate Helps Weight Loss. Here's How. by John Bohannon,
io9, 27 May, 2015. There's some discussion and background information on WUWT
and on RetractionWatch here
- RetractionWatch.com has a seemingly endless stream
of cautionary tales about science gone wrong.
most elementary and valuable statement in science, the beginning of wisdom, is, 'I do not know.'”
Jack B. Sowards (screenwriter), as Lt Cdr Data (Brent Spiner).
Here's another excellent list of articles about the troubled state of
what passes for "science" these days:
- U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public
Works Republican Staff has issued several very
informative Reports on Climate Change, the Climategate scandal, and related topics.
submitted by the Institute of Physics to the UK Parliament. The IOP
concluded that the Climategate emails "provide prima facie evidence of
determined and co-ordinated refusals to comply with honourable scientific
traditions and freedom of information law."
- GAO Report: Climate Monitoring - NOAA Can
Improve Management of the U.S. Historical Climatology Network,
Aug. 2011 (or here)
- Why has there been no global warming for the past decade?
- a lecture by Princeton Prof. Wm Happer at UNC, Chapel Hill, NC, Sept. 8, 2014, about the physics of atmospheric
greenhouse warming from carbon dioxide (slides, audio recording & supplemental information).
- Measurement of sea-level by satellite altimetry is unreliable. Physicist Willie Soon explains the problems
starting at 17:37 in this very informative
- The "97% consensus" myth: Do 97% of experts really agree with the IPCC
that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous global warming? (Not even close!)
- For information on the 2010-2012 North Carolina Sea-Level
Rise political fight, see the sealevel.info Resources page.
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